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The Delphi method ( ) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.〔Bernice B. Brown (1968). "Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts.": An earlier paper published by RAND (Document No: P-3925, 1968, 15 pages)〕〔Sackman, H. (1974), "Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process", R-1283-PR, April 1974. Brown, Thomas, "An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting", R-944-ARPA, 1972〕 The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator or change agent provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a predefined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.〔Rowe and Wright (1999): The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. ''International Journal of Forecasting'', Volume 15, Issue 4, October 1999.〕 Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.〔Rowe and Wright (2001): Expert Opinions in Forecasting. Role of the Delphi Technique. In: Armstrong (Ed.): ''Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook of Researchers and Practitioners'', Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.〕 The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.〔 ==History== The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of Delphi. The authors of the method were not happy with this name, because it implies "something oracular, something smacking a little of the occult". 〔Adler, Michael & Erio Ziglio (1996) ''Gazing Into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Application to Social Policy and Public Health'', (Jessica Kingsley Publishers, 1996). (())〕 The Delphi method is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments. The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare.〔"JVTE v15n2: The Modified Delphi Technique - A Rotational Modification," ''Journal of Vocational and Technical Education'', Volume 15 Number 2, Spring 1999, web: (VT-edu-JVTE-v15n2 ): of Delphi Technique developed by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey.〕 In 1944, General Henry H. Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army Air Corps on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military. Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach, quantitative models or trend extrapolation, quickly became apparent in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed by Project RAND during the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher.〔Rescher(1998): ''Predicting the Future'', (Albany, NY: State University of New York Press, 1998). ((), (), ())〕 It has been used ever since, together with various modifications and reformulations, such as the Imen-Delphi procedure. Experts were asked to give their opinion on the probability, frequency, and intensity of possible enemy attacks. Other experts could anonymously give feedback. This process was repeated several times until a consensus emerged. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Delphi method」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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